Power load forecasting

For the electric power factory, the power load forecasting problem, including load forecasting and consumption predicting, is crucial to work planning. According to the predicting time, it can be divided into long-term forecasting, mid-term forecasting, short-term forecasting and ultra-short-term forecasting. The long-term and mid-term forecasting are mainly used for macro control, and their forecasting time arrange are from one year to ten years and from one month to twelve months respectively. The short-term forecasting which prediction time is from one day to seven days is used in generators macroeconomic control, power exchange plan and some other areas. Predicting the situation in next 24 hours is named as the ultra-short-term forecasting which is used for failure prediction, emergency treatment and frequency control. In general, the forecast accuracy is different for different prediction time. The longer is the time, the lower accurate is the prediction. As the unique power supplier in Huizhou (China), Huizhou Electric Power wants to know the solution to the problems: 1. Prediction of the total electrical consumption and the peak load of the city in 2006 based on the economy development and the feature of the city. 2. Monthly prediction of the consumption and peak load in 2006. 3. Daily prediction of the consumption and peak load from July 10th to 16th in 2006. 4. Prediction of the load every 15 minutes of July 10th. 5. Real-time forecasting which means to amend the existing load prediction for next 15 minute

Search for the signal of monotop production at the early LHC

We investigate the potential of the early LHC to discover the signal of monotops, which can be decay products of some resonances in models such as R-parity violating SUSY or SU(5), etc. We show how to constrain the parameter space of the models by the present data of $Z$ boson hadronic decay branching ratio, $K^0-\bar{K^0}$ mixing and dijet productions at the LHC. Then, we study the various cuts imposed on the events, reconstructed from the hadronic final states, to suppress backgrounds and increase the significance in detail. And we find that in the hadronic mode the information from the missing transverse energy and reconstructed resonance mass distributions can be used to specify the masses of the resonance and the missing particle. Finally, we study the sensitivities to the parameters at the LHC with $\sqrt{s}$=7 TeV and an integrated luminosity of $1 {\rm fb}^{-1}$ in detail. Our results show that the early LHC may detect this signal at 5$\sigma$ level for some regions of the parameter space allowed by the current data.Comment: 25 pages, 18 figures, 3 tables, version published in Phys.Rev.